AGP Executive Report

CHP Power Struggle: Turkey’s election authority (YSK) says it lacks authority to review a court ruling that declared the CHP’s 38th convention “absolutely null,” pushing the dispute back into the judiciary and intensifying opposition fears of a shutdown. Opposition Urges Vote Deadline: CHP’s main opposition leadership loyal to ousted chair Özgür Özel warns it must hold a congress by July 25 or risk losing the party’s legal existence, urging delegates to back an extraordinary congress. Energy Security Push: President Erdoğan says Türkiye’s role as a regional energy hub has grown amid Middle East supply disruptions, pointing to Strait of Hormuz risks and renewed demand for transit and distribution. Regional Connectivity: Transport minister Uraloğlu outlines plans to modernise the Hejaz Railway and extend it toward Oman as an alternative trade route, while also advancing the Kars-Iğdır-Aralık-Dilucu segment. Armenia Normalization: Business leaders meet in Kars as Ankara and Yerevan continue normalization steps, including talks on reopening transport links and direct trade. Defense & Drills: Turkey launches a major naval exercise across multiple seas, involving 125 assets, 60 aircraft and about 18,000 personnel. Transport Finance: State rail operator TCDD posts a record 35.53bn lira net loss in 2025, renewing criticism over management and staffing. International Mobility: Iran’s World Cup squad secures Mexican visas via Ankara, with the team set to depart for Mexico after a final warm-up in Turkey behind closed doors.

World Cup & Visas: Iran’s World Cup participation is still being shaped by travel paperwork, with ESPN reporting the team expects Mexico visas Wednesday and U.S. entry visas Friday, after training base changes tied to security concerns. Diplomacy: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hit out at global institutions over what he called “strategic resignation,” while also pushing that Turkey won’t sit idle as conflicts rage. CHP Power Struggle: Turkey’s main opposition remains split after a court-ordered leadership return, with police escorting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu back to CHP headquarters and rival gatherings turning into political rallies. Economy: TurkStat says Türkiye’s GDP grew 2.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with exports down 12.7% and industrial output contracting 0.8%. Energy & Transport: The upgraded Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway entered full operation, boosting annual freight capacity fivefold to 5 million tonnes. Sports (Club): Transfer talk around Galatasaray’s Victor Osimhen continues, with commentators arguing the only “right” price would be a very high offer.

Diplomacy & Security: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the U.S. and Iran are “sincere” about a ceasefire and that Israel’s Lebanon actions pose a “significant risk,” as he also confirmed Trump plans to attend the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8. Human Rights: The European Court of Human Rights ruled Turkey violated the rights of Greek Orthodox priests by blocking them from serving on foundation boards in Istanbul. Politics at Home: CHP’s leadership fight escalated after a court annulled the 2023 congress; MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli urged the appeals court to decide quickly and warned against unrest, while Özgür Özel rallied CHP lawmakers in parliament behind a push for an extraordinary convention. Economy & Daily Life: Turkey cut gasoline and diesel prices after easing global oil moves tied to U.S.-Iran talks. Energy & Trade: BP will hand over management of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to SOCAR from July 1; and Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia launched full-capacity operations on the BTK railway, boosting the Middle Corridor. Sports: Turkey’s tourism sector is watching a potential U.S.-Iran deal cautiously as peak season begins.

Turkey-EU/Regional Security: Ankara condemned Israel’s expansion of its “occupation” in Lebanon, warning it threatens stability and deepens the humanitarian crisis, while the EU also urged Israel to halt escalation and respect Lebanon’s sovereignty. NATO Focus: NATO’s deputy chief urged faster defense rearmament ahead of the Ankara summit, saying the meeting will turn “cash into combat-ready capabilities” and scale up defense industry support for Ukraine. Middle East Diplomacy: Iran said its US ceasefire covers “all fronts, including Lebanon,” blaming Washington and Israel for any violations as strikes and warnings continue. Economy Watch: Turkey’s manufacturing PMI edged up in May to 49.8, signaling near-stabilisation as exports supported production, though costs and supply delays remain a drag. Public Safety: President Erdoğan said 70 people died in traffic accidents during the Eid al-Adha holiday, though fatalities fell versus previous years. Sports & Society: Turkey beat North Macedonia 4-0 in a World Cup tune-up, with Arda Güler coming off the bench. Global Politics: UK barred US political commentators Cenk Uygur and Hasan Piker, a move tied to their Israel criticism.

Gaza Ceasefire Talks: Türkiye’s intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın met Hamas officials in Ankara to discuss the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including alleged Israeli violations and steps to prevent further breaches. Holy Sites: Ankara condemned an Israeli raid on Al-Aqsa Mosque by extremist groups, calling it provocative and a violation of Jerusalem’s historic status. Road Safety: Türkiye reported 70 deaths in traffic accidents during the nine-day Eid al-Adha holiday, saying the toll is the lowest for such a break so far. Energy Deal: BOTAŞ, SOCAR, TotalEnergies and ADNOC signed a 15-year gas supply agreement for 33 bcm from Azerbaijan’s Absheron field starting in 2029, boosting regional energy security. Azerbaijan-Electricity Push: Türkiye’s energy minister said Azerbaijan will also contribute via electricity, pointing to new cooperation beyond TANAP. World Cup Build-Up: Google Türkiye named Gemini an official sponsor of the national team ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. UK Entry Bans: The UK blocked Turkish-American commentators Hasan Piker and Cenk Uygur from entering to speak at public events, citing “public good” concerns. Eid Travel Crunch: Istanbul’s Sabiha Gökçen hit an all-time daily flight record, reflecting heavy holiday travel demand. Textile Tech in Istanbul: ITM 2026 will feature major lab and production showcases from Roaches, ZIMMER AUSTRIA and Shima Seiki.

NATO Summit Prep: Turkey is ramping up preparations for the July NATO summit, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan saying President Erdoğan has spoken with U.S. President Donald Trump “many times” and there’s no sign Trump won’t attend. Regional Security: Ankara also expects leaders and defense ministers from Indo-Pacific partners including Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, coordinating with NATO chief Mark Rutte. Lebanon Crisis: France’s Macron said “nothing justifies” Israel’s escalation in southern Lebanon despite a ceasefire, while a UN Security Council meeting on Lebanon is set for Monday at France’s request. Iran-US Talks: Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran won’t draw final conclusions until talks with Washington produce “clear and tangible results,” as tensions continue over the Strait of Hormuz. Road Safety: A tourist bus crash in Denizli killed 8, including a 9-month-old, and injured 33. Sports Spotlight: Arda Güler was named UEFA Champions League “Revelation of the Season,” while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia won “Player of the Season.”

Istanbul Concert Spotlight: Kanye West (Ye) drew about 118,000 fans to Atatürk Olympic Stadium in his first Europe appearance in over a decade, despite bans and backlash over his antisemitic remarks; Italy: authorities cancelled his and Travis Scott’s summer shows in Reggio Emilia over security fears and expected protests. Road Safety: A tourist bus crash in Denizli (western Türkiye) killed 8, including a 9-month-old, as Eid return traffic clogged highways. Defense & Industry: Türkiye’s Katmerciler delivered the first batch of upgraded HIZIR 4x4 armored vehicles with domestically integrated systems to the Turkish Armed Forces. Parliament & Security: After Eid al-Adha, Türkiye’s parliament is set to resume with new legal steps tied to the government’s anti-terror “terror-free Türkiye” initiative. Regional Diplomacy: FM Hakan Fidan said normalization with Israel depends on concrete moves toward a Palestinian state on 1967 borders, linking any regional security framework to that outcome. Health Push: Türkiye reported 75,184 people sought smoking-cessation support in the first four months, with consultations up sharply.

CHP Crisis in Ankara: Ousted CHP leader Özgür Özel drew tens of thousands in central Ankara after a court annulled the party’s 2023 congress, reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and deepening the leadership fight. Black Sea Security: Turkey urged restraint after a drone attack hit a Turkish-owned cargo vessel in the Black Sea, injuring two crew members, as Ankara warned against escalation. Turkey–Japan Drones: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey is ready to cooperate with Japan on UAVs and anti-drone systems, including joint development and production. Maritime Safety Tech: Havelsan unveiled BLUEVISION, an AI-based maritime situational awareness system that fuses camera data with AIS to improve detection and collision warnings. Eid at Hagia Sophia: Erdogan held prayers at Hagia Sophia on the conquest anniversary, with a large “March of Conquest” procession drawing crowds. Regional Conflict: Israel advanced beyond the Litani River toward Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, while Gaza saw a strike near Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital that killed a Palestinian and injured three. Euphrates Floods: Flooding from rising Euphrates waters forced evacuations in northern/eastern Syria, threatening homes and farmland.

Black Sea Tensions: Turkey urged restraint after a drone attack hit a Turkish-owned cargo ship, reiterating calls for safe navigation and a negotiated end to the war. Maritime Incidents: A Turkish-owned general cargo ship, the Ant, was set on fire after being struck near the Odesa area; two crew members suffered minor injuries and were evacuated with help from the Ukrainian Navy. Rescue After Sinking: A pirate-themed party boat, “Big Boss Diamond,” sank off Turkey’s coast with 148 British passengers aboard; Muğla authorities said all were evacuated safely. Opposition Crackdown in Turkey: A court annulled CHP’s 2023 congress, restoring Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and removing Özgür Özel, deepening the party leadership crisis amid broader pressure on opposition figures. French Open Safety Row: Turkish tennis player Zeynep Sönmez retired after a freak collision with an advertising board; Roland Garros said adjustments are being made around the playing surface. Environment: Turkey banned night access to 21 protected sea turtle nesting beaches, with steep fines for violations. Diplomacy in Cyprus: The UN’s envoy Maria Angel Holguin is set to visit next week, with talks likely tied to the next phase of Cyprus efforts.

Black Sea Security: Turkey warned of “uncontrolled escalation” after Russian drones hit a Turkish-owned cargo vessel off Ukraine’s Odesa route, injuring two crew members and sparking a fire, as Ankara urged all sides to protect civilian navigation. Diplomacy & Regional Tensions: The same drone wave reportedly targeted multiple ships near Turkey’s northern coast, prompting fresh Turkish calls to reduce tension. Press Freedom: A new report says Turkey’s 2025 media crackdown worsened, with 29 journalists arrested and pretrial detention rising sharply amid expanded internet censorship. Opposition Under Pressure: Socialist International backed Özgür Özel as CHP’s legitimate leader after a court dispute over leadership reinstatement, calling for a transparent, democratic congress. Cyprus Politics: Turkish Cypriot authorities rejected talk of a “window of opportunity,” insisting any process must recognize Turkish Cyprus’ sovereign equality. Sports Safety: At the French Open, Turkish doubles player Zeynep Sönmez retired after tripping over an advertising hoarding; Katie Boulter also demanded boards be removed after a similar fall.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s forces fired warning shots at four vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after they tried to pass without coordination, as Tehran also reported air-defence activity against “hostile aerial targets,” amid heightened West Asia tensions. Austria Terror Trial: An Austrian court sentenced a 21-year-old man to 15 years for plotting a foiled Islamist attack on a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna in 2024, after weapons attempts and bomb-making instructions linked to ISIS. Switzerland Stabbing: A Swiss-Turkish dual national was arrested after stabbing three people at Winterthur train station; authorities called it an “act of terror,” with the suspect previously flagged for distributing ISIS propaganda. Black Sea Drone Attacks: Three sanctioned “shadow fleet” oil tankers off Türkiye’s Black Sea coast were hit by drones, with crews reported safe and at least one vessel reportedly affected. Local Politics in Türkiye: İstanbul Ağaç ve Peyzaj A.Ş. workers said they paused a 23-day sit-in after being fired over “security investigations,” accusing İBB of ongoing unfair dismissals. Defense & Industry: Türkiye’s FNSS ZAHA amphibious assault vehicles showcased sea-to-shore combat capability during EFES-2026 in İzmir.

Black Sea Security: Three oil tankers were hit by drones off Türkiye’s Black Sea coast, including a Palau-flagged “James II” and two Sierra Leone-flagged ships “Altura” and “Velora,” with crews unharmed and Turkish coast guard vessels dispatched; the attacks target vessels tied to Russia’s “shadow fleet” sanctions evasion. Gaza Diplomacy: Hamas said Israel’s strikes killed more than 20 Palestinians in 48 hours and accused Tel Aviv of trying to restart a “genocide war,” while Turkey-backed mediation is cited in a Sharm el-Sheikh ceasefire deal. Cyprus Politics: Reports say Ankara has been excluding Cyprus from COP31 preparatory contacts, drawing EU criticism and calls to include all UN member states, including Cyprus. Opposition Crackdown: Turkish police stormed CHP headquarters and moved to evict ousted leadership amid a leadership dispute after a court decision. Legal Ruling: The European Court of Human Rights condemned Türkiye for barring Greek Orthodox clergy from minority foundation boards, calling it a violation of religion and association rights.

ECHR Landmark for Turkey’s Minorities: The European Court of Human Rights ruled against Turkey over violations of the Ecumenical Patriarchate’s freedom of religion and association, after a long legal fight tied to Greek Orthodox clergy being barred from foundation boards. Istanbul Global Islamic Economy Summit: Istanbul will host the third Global Islamic Economy Summit (June 3-6), focusing on ethical finance, sustainable development, inclusive growth, sukuk, social finance and even fintech and AI. Turkey-Greece Maritime Tensions: Greece rejected Turkey’s “Blue Homeland” and renewed demilitarisation claims over Aegean islands, warning against “revisionist” interpretations and insisting on adherence to international law. EFES-2026 Defence Showcase: Turkey’s EFES-2026 exercise highlighted modernisation and defence industry links, including naval amphibious firepower demonstrations with AH-1W Super Cobras. Eid al-Adha Across Turkey: Eid prayers and livestock market scenes marked the holiday nationwide, with charity and community rituals in focus. Migration Pressure in Europe: Greece reported a sharp drop in sea arrivals in early 2026, while the UK saw continued Channel crossings amid hot weather.

CHP Leadership Crisis: Turkey’s main opposition CHP plunged deeper into turmoil after a court annulled the 2023 congress that brought Özgür Özel to power, with reinstated leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu saying a new congress will happen only once legal conditions are met—while Özel insists the party should be led by a vote of its 2 million members. Political Fallout: MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli urged CHP to hold a Sept. 9 convention and criticized the chaos after police stormed CHP headquarters. Eid Diplomacy: Parties are preparing Eid al-Adha visit schedules, but the holiday outreach is split by the CHP factions, with some parties refusing meetings tied to the Kılıçdaroğlu camp. Istanbul Islamic Economy Summit: Istanbul will host the third Global Islamic Economy Summit June 3–6, focusing on ethical finance, sustainable development, and inclusive growth. Energy Security: Turkey plans a 97-kilometer subsea natural gas pipeline to Northern Cyprus, targeting operation in 2028. Sports & Justice: The 2015 attack on the Fenerbahçe team bus in Trabzon will be reexamined by judicial authorities after a legal reversal. Business Deal: Çimsa has completed its takeover of Mannok, making it a wholly owned subsidiary.

Opposition Crackdown: Turkish police used water cannon and tear gas to disperse CHP supporters in İzmir after a court ousted CHP leader Özgür Özel and police stormed the party’s Ankara HQ, with protesters chanting “President Özgür, free Turkey!” Rule-of-Law Clash: The Ankara appeals court declared CHP congresses “absolutely null and void,” reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and deepening a political fight over whether courts are enforcing party legality or meddling in politics. Eid Diplomacy: President Erdoğan called Iran’s Pezeshkian and Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif, stressing Türkiye’s support for negotiations as Eid al-Adha is overshadowed by the Iran-US-Israel conflict. Regional Tensions in Travel: Airlines cut or suspended Middle East routes amid security fears, while Türkiye’s economic confidence ticked up in May, led by manufacturing and retail. Global Watch: A flotilla group renewed claims of US complicity in alleged abuse during Israel’s detention of activists.

CHP Crackdown Escalates: Turkish riot police used water cannons and tear gas to block and disperse opposition crowds in İzmir as the political crisis deepened after a court move that ousted CHP leadership—supporters say it’s politically motivated, while authorities push back on “provocative” activity, including blocking 93 social media accounts. NATO Summit Pressure: Ukraine’s ambassador in Ankara says NATO is expected to debate mandatory, budget-linked funding for Kyiv at the July summit. World Cup Logistics Twist: Iran’s squad will sleep in Mexico and travel to U.S. match days after Washington refused to host them overnight, with Mexico’s president saying “no problem.” Africa-Ties Momentum: Türkiye signals continued diplomacy and stability efforts with Iran, while Somalia seeks fresh mining deals with Ankara. Energy Watch: North Cyprus electricity tariffs rise by 22% from next Monday.